Bulk Ag Export Declines

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects major bulk commodities—grains, soybeans, and cotton—will account for only 28.5% of total U.S. agricultural exports in FY 2025, marking the lowest share on record. This decline follows a peak of 38% in FY 2022 and reflects both falling prices and a shift in global demand patterns.

USDA analysis attributes the sharp drop in bulk export value to multiple factors: easing commodity prices after pandemic-era spikes, China’s declining import demand, and intensifying global competition. While export volumes for bulk goods have increased since FY 2024, prices have fallen significantly due to record global production and weak import demand.

Between 2020 and 2022, bulk export values surged as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical disruptions (notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), and supply chain constraints drove prices of soybeans and grains up nearly 90%. China played a central role in this growth, importing large volumes of U.S. feed grains to rebuild swine herds following an African swine fever outbreak. The Phase One Agreement also bolstered purchases. However, bulk volumes to China have since plummeted—corn exports dropped 80% in 2024, while sorghum fell 96% in early 2025.

Simultaneously, China’s broader shift toward consumer-oriented imports—such as meat, dairy, and horticultural products—has reduced its reliance on land-intensive U.S. bulk goods. Domestic economic pressures, including a deepening real estate crisis and waning consumer demand, further restrain Chinese imports.

U.S. exporters also face stiffening competition. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the world’s top corn and soybean exporter and has rapidly expanded into cotton. U.S. market share in corn, wheat, and soybeans has steadily declined from its early 2000s levels, with the EU, Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina all gaining ground.

Although global supply chains have normalized following disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, record harvests in Brazil, the EU, and other producers have saturated the market. High global supplies and retreating energy and fertilizer prices have placed downward pressure on commodity prices, eroding the value of U.S. exports despite steady or rising volumes.

The USDA notes that while the value of bulk exports has declined, high-value U.S. agricultural products—intermediate and consumer-oriented goods—have remained more stable, reflecting their insulation from commodity price swings due to value-added processing, packaging, and transport.

As global agricultural markets recalibrate post-crisis, the outlook for U.S. bulk exports remains constrained by both structural and geopolitical challenges. USDA warns that heightened competition and weakening demand from China will likely persist, adding uncertainty for U.S. producers already coping with reduced profitability and rising input costs.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, June 2025 Agricultural Trade Outlook.