Report Reviews Past 36 Months in US - China Export Controls

A new commentary from Barath Harithas and Andreas Schumacher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides a single resource guide for understanding U.S. export controls on China from 2022 to 2024. It provides a clear account of the motivations driving U.S. actions in 2022 and identifies a familiar pattern of gaps in 2023 and 2024

Shortcomings include:

• Technical gaps due to technocratic blind spots/overreliance on static criteria, facilitating simple workarounds;
• Legal circumvention whereby companies skirted restrictions, sliding just under thresholds, to continue operations within the letter of the law; and
• Illicit evasion of export controls (i.e., illegal acts such as smuggling), undermining their intended effect and challenging enforcement mechanisms

Ultimately, the success of U.S. controls will hinge on their multilateralization. However, export control agreements do not occur in isolation. They are influenced by the broader context of U.S. trade policies and diplomatic actions. Aggressive U.S. tariffs or heavy-handed negotiation tactics could alienate allies, making harmonization more difficult, the authors assert.