Candidate Trump promised tariffs on all imports from 10 to 20 percent, with a special rate of 60 percent on all imports from China.  While special favors and brinksmanship will determine the ultimate levies, it's worth taking a look at where the costs of the proposed duties will fall. Consumers can expect to see higher prices reflected in electrical devices, toys and sporting goods, vegetable and meat products, and imported foodstuffs. Consumer electronics were largely shielded from the 2018 tariffs, including cell phones, laptops, and smartwatches.   Toys and sports equipment are currently very lightly taxed, the authors note, and a 60 percent tariff almost certainly will be felt directly by American household

McKinsey and Company Africa (Pty) Ltd, which operates in South Africa as a wholly owned and controlled subsidiary of international consulting firm McKinsey & Company Inc, will pay over $122 million to resolve an investigation by the Justice Department into a scheme to pay bribes to government officials in South Africa between 2012 and 2016.

Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced a package of rules designed to further impair China’s capability to produce advanced-node semiconductors that can be used in the next generation of advanced weapon systems and in artificial intelligence and advanced computing. In response, the Chinese government imposed further restrictions on the export of "dual use" commodities banning sales of gallium, germanium, antimony and tightening controls on graphite exports. The BIS controls target some, but not all affiliates of chip manufacturers SMIC and Huawei, as well as semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturers in the PRC.

WTO members agreed to give incumbent Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala a second term as Director-General of the WTO. Her second four-year term, which was approved at a special General Council meeting, will begin on 1 September 2025. DG Okonjo-Iweala took office as Director-General in March 2021 and is the first African and the first woman to serve as head of the organization.

The proposed Day One abrogation of the US - Mexico - Canada Free Trade agreement gave Washington something to talk about over the Thanksgiving dinner table, while cooler heads focussed on football and another slice of that pie, please. Mr. Trump signaled that he wants to slap a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports, and a further 10% tariff on everything that comes in from China.  “This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” he punctuated.

With Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce, and Jamieson Greer as USTR, the game of Where’s Lighthizer continues.   Few Washington insiders expect the President-elect to throw the chief architect of his trade policy under the bus, in favor of younger, richer, more telegenic acolytes, but stranger things have happened.   

For a president seeking to impose swift and decisive change to geoeconomic policy, few hammers outweigh the The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which provides the President broad authority to regulate a variety of economic transactions following a declaration of national emergency.    With advisers advocating using the act to gut the federal workforce, sweeping tariffs, and even to selectively default on the federal debt, expect the IEEPA to play an outsized role in Trump 2.0.

 While the imperatives of serving a mercurial master may call for nimble footwork, career civil servants in Justice, Treasury  and the Commerce Department can look forward to leadership in the new administration that, while of markedly different persuasion, has demonstrated administrative competence. After summarizing the Trade credentials of Pam Bondi, Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent, we introduce the key economic argument being used to defend tariffs.

Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has announced full blocking sanctions against 118 entities and individuals, including Gazprombank and fifty other banks. Thursday's actions bring it in alignment with allied sanctions on  Gazprombank—the largest bank not previously sanctioned. OFAC’s action includes the designation of Gazprombank, more than 50 internationally connected Russian banks, more than 40 Russian securities registrars, and 15 Russian finance officials.

 The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) has officially submitted its 2024 Annual Report to Congress,. The report, unanimously approved by the Commission’s 12 members, although Dr. Cleveland inserted an addendum witholding her support for two of the reccomendations.

Washington spent the week evaluating the President-Elect's cabinet picks, with responses ranging from relief and appreciation to "vomit in the mouth." Senator John Thune will be the Senate Majority Leader, and while the House of Representative does not name its leader until January,, Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to retain his gavel. Key cabinet posts Treasury and Commerce had not been announced by presstime, but Mar a Lago gave Beltway nabobs plenty to chew on.

Rural American may have made a key contribution to the success of the Trump campaign, though so far the favor has yet to yield much in return. The first trade bout between the U.S. and China in 2018 resulted in losses of more than $27 billion for U.S. agricultural exporters.   Farm subsidies tripled to over $30 billion in the last Trump administration, though enthusiasm for growing the federal budget is less pronounced today.

Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party has introduced the  the ‘Restoring Trade Fairness Act," laying the groundwork for revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status.    Tariff rates would begin a 35 percent, with a minimum of 100 percent for certain articles, subject to a phase-in period., with the proceeds subsidizing impacted or favored domestic producers.

The Treasury reversed its denial of an application in 2022 to host small group, direct engagement conferences which include the participation of sanctioned individuals.

Former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in his bid to win a second term creates both uncertainty and opportunity for US trade policy, according to analysts and experts.  Speculation is rampant on the outcomes for Tariffs, FTAs, Climate Policy and The WTO along with fresh scrutiny of AML/CFT regulation and Nuclear proliferation.

Former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has been asked to return to the position in the coming Trump Administration reboot, according to reports in the Financial Times. A former attorney for domestic steelmakers, Lighthizer recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal  that a return to the mercantilist policies of the 19th centrury are appropriate for today:

The regulators responsible for drafting the biggest rulemaking changes to space-related export controls briefed stakeholders on the initiative,, addressed some initial questions, and urged engagement through comments as the rules are finalized. The November 6 presentation included officials from the State Department, Commerce and NASA who shared their perspectives on their remits. The event finished with a review of some questions submitted by stakeholders.

Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) imposed a civil penalty of $500,000 against GlobalFoundries U.S. Inc., a semiconductor wafer manufacturing company headquartered in Malta, New York, and its subsidiary, GlobalFoundries U.S. 2 LLC (collectively, “GlobalFoundries”). The penalty relates to GlobalFoundries’ shipments of semiconductor wafers valued at approximately $17.1 million to SJ Semiconductor (SJS), a company on the BIS Entity List, without the requisite license or other authorization from BIS.

…Monday the Treasury Department published the final language of the outbound investment requlations, governing US firm's investment in Chinese strategic technology. The Treasury issued a final rule to implement Executive Order 14105 of August 9, 2023, “Addressing United States Investments in Certain National Security Technologies and Products in Countries of Concern” (the Outbound Order).  The Final Rule provides the operative regulations and a detailed explanatory discussion regarding their intent and application. 

Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) added 26 entities to the Entity List, while giving relief to one Canadian firm for substantive reforms to its business practices. Sandvine Incorporated, an entity listed under the destinations of Canada, India, Japan, Malaysia, Sweden, and the UAE, has been removed following significant reforms to address and prevent the misuse of its technology in ways that undermine democracy and abuse human rights