Blinken Nod to China, Modest Results

Secretary of State Antony Blinken's recent trip to China reflects a measured approach by the US administration to the ongoing complexity of Sino-US relations. While this visit aimed to open channels of dialogue, it has not produced significant or immediate outcomes.

The fact that there are no plans for President Biden to engage with President Xi signals that both nations are treading carefully in their bilateral relations.  

Blinken’s focus on the issues of Ukraine, human rights, and China's unfair trade practices show that the US is not ready to compromise its stance on these significant matters. Meanwhile, his interaction with US businesses operating in China suggests a reassurance strategy from the US administration, even amidst increasing regulatory challenges faced by these businesses.

The insistence by Blinken on the US's non-interest in decoupling its economy from China’s points to a pragmatic stance. The US seeks to reduce risk, diversify, and ensure fair trade practices, but not at the expense of severing economic ties with China. This is contrary to the expectations of more hawkish political figures like Rep. Mike Gallagher who are concerned about the US ignoring China's human rights violations and unfair trade practices in favor of maintaining economic relations.

China’s stance, as presented by President Xi, also leans toward maintaining a stable relationship, but under conditions of mutual respect and non-interference. He asserted China’s intention to respect US interests without seeking to challenge or displace it. However, it remains to be seen if the US administration will interpret this as a conciliatory gesture or a veiled warning.

In the broader international arena, Europe's pushback against China’s economic might is getting tested. The European Union's recent economic-security strategy, though not directly mentioning China or Russia, implies a drive towards limiting the bloc's exposure to geopolitical rivals. While the move could be seen as aligning with the US's cautious approach towards China, it remains uncertain whether EU member states will concur with this strategy.

The German president's call for strengthened communication channels between the US and China underlines Europe’s desire for stable US-China relations, given their significant impact on global security and cooperation. This plea aligns with the general European stance favoring dialogue over confrontation. The success of Blinken’s visit to China, therefore, may hold broader implications for global economic diplomacy.

Overall, Blinken's China trip demonstrates the complexity and delicacy of economic diplomacy between major world powers. The balance of maintaining robust economic ties while addressing contentious issues will remain a persistent challenge for the US, China, and Europe.