Fresh off a win against Canada over its digital services tax, President Trump is now putting the pressure on Japan to make concessions in order to avoid hefty tariffs after the July 9 deadline for making trade deals. The Japanese aren't buying the bluster.
While not outright calling a halt to trade talks with Japan, Mr. Trump warned in a Truth Social post that he is ready to assign Tokyo a reciprocal tariff rate. “To show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage. In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.”
Mr. Trump has said countries that do not complete trade deals with the United States by the time his 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs ends July 9 will receive a letter stating their final tariff rate.
Rice has always been a sensitive sector for Japan. However, in ongoing trade negotiations with Washington, Tokyo has been more focused on avoiding 25 percent tariffs on automobiles and parts.
Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted yesterday that there will be a “flurry” of trade deals announced before July 9.
Mr. Bessent previously has been assuring countries – and the stock market – that negotiations will continue beyond the July 9 deadline with nations that are in the midst of good faith discussions with the United States.
But in an interview on Bloomberg Television, Mr. Bessent said it is up to the President whether there will be any extensions. “We have countries negotiating in good faith, but if we can’t get across the line because they are being recalcitrant, tariffs may have to spring back the April 2 levels [the day the 90 day pause was announced].
U.S.-Japan trade negotiations are faltering amid escalating rhetoric from President Donald Trump, who for the third consecutive day criticized Japan’s trade practices and floated sharply higher tariffs on Japanese imports.
Speaking aboard Air Force One on Tuesday, Trump told reporters, “I’m not sure if we’re going to make a deal. I doubt it with Japan. They’re very tough. You have to understand they’re very spoiled.”
He again cited Japan’s limited imports of U.S. rice and automobiles and suggested he might unilaterally impose tariffs of 30% or 35% on Japanese products if no agreement is reached.
“What I’m going to do is I’ll write them a letter saying, ‘We thank you very much … and therefore you’ll pay 30%, 35% or whatever the number is that we determined,’” Trump said.
Japan currently faces 25% additional duties on vehicles and auto parts and 50% on steel and aluminum. Most other products are subject to a 10% “reciprocal” tariff that could increase to 24% after the July 9 deadline the Trump administration has set for new trade agreements.
In April, Japan’s chief tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa received a warm welcome in Washington, donning a red “Make America Great Again” cap during an Oval Office meeting with Trump. However, his most recent visit to Washington — the seventh round of tariff talks — yielded no progress. A 65-minute meeting with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and two brief follow-up calls ended without agreement.
Since Akazawa’s departure, Trump has delivered a series of pointed remarks criticizing Japan’s negotiating posture. Tokyo has refrained from responding publicly. Akazawa and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki have declined comment. However, TV Asahi reported Wednesday that Akazawa may return to Washington this weekend for another round of talks.
Observers say the Trump administration’s patience is waning. “The Trump administration is clearly hitting a wall on this issue and on many others,” said Ryo Sahashi, professor at the University of Tokyo’s Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia. “From the U.S. side, Japan probably just looks like it’s sitting there … And that’s fine. It’s better to drag this out.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is overseeing the talks, confirmed in a Fox News interview that a breakthrough may not be imminent. “If the deal is not fair for the American people, President Trump has told us not to take it,” Bessent said.
Sahashi noted that Japan’s initial enthusiasm for a quick deal has faded. “It’s not falling apart. It’s more like making sure it doesn’t look like it’s falling apart — that’s kind of Japan’s specialty.”
Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, said in a note Wednesday that despite the threats, unilateral tariff hikes remain unlikely. “Japan has never even hinted at retaliatory sanctions and is seen as a compliant partner,” he wrote. “The Trump administration may find it difficult to take a hard-line approach using tariffs so easily.”
The broader context of U.S. trade talks has been mixed. Apart from pacts with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, and an informal truce with China, other negotiations — including with the European Union — remain unresolved.
For now, Japan appears intent on staying at the table, though expectations of favorable terms have receded. “If we get intimidated by their threats, we lose,” Sahashi said.
[updated July 3, 2025]
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