Mixed Signals on Russia Sanctions

President Donald Trump has issued contradictory signals regarding sanctions on Russia, simultaneously threatening punitive economic measures while reportedly exploring avenues for relief.

On Friday, Trump warned of large-scale banking sanctions, tariffs, and additional economic penalties on Moscow in an effort to push Russia and Ukraine toward a peace settlement. “I am strongly considering large-scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He urged both sides to negotiate immediately, stating, “To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late.”

The statement follows last week's strained encounter between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after which the U.S. suspended military aid and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv. National security adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are scheduled to lead U.S. participation in upcoming peace talks in Saudi Arabia.

However, Trump's rhetoric softened later on Friday when he suggested he found negotiations with Moscow easier than with Kyiv. “I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine [than Russia],” he stated, adding that President Vladimir Putin “wants to get it ended.” Trump also questioned Kyiv’s commitment to a settlement, implying that continued U.S. military support would be contingent on Ukrainian willingness to negotiate.

Despite his threats of increased economic pressure on Russia, reports indicate that the Trump administration is simultaneously considering sanction relief. The Treasury and State Departments have been directed to compile a list of sanctions to be lifted, and administration officials are preparing options identifying individuals and entities for potential relief.

Talks in Turkey between Russian and U.S. intermediaries have included discussions on restoring direct air links and potential efforts to revive the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, with reported interest from U.S. investors.

Putin signaled optimism over these developments, recently stating that early contacts with the Trump administration offered “grounds for hope.” He suggested that Western elites may attempt to disrupt renewed Russian-American engagement but expressed confidence in progress.

The mixed signals from Washington have raised concerns among U.S. allies and lawmakers. While Trump’s administration criticizes previous sanctions under the Biden administration as ineffective, analysts argue that the U.S. has few remaining economic tools to pressure Moscow, given the extensive measures already in place.

Europe, by contrast, retains more significant leverage over Russia’s economy. With the EU accounting for nearly 40% of Russia’s trade pre-war, European sanctions—especially on high-tech exports and energy—have had a more profound impact than U.S. measures alone. The EU is set to phase out Russian hydrocarbon imports entirely by 2027, further diminishing Moscow’s financial strength.

As Trump oscillates between pressure and conciliation, the ultimate direction of U.S. policy toward Russia remains unclear. While threats of additional sanctions persist, efforts to ease existing restrictions suggest a broader strategy still in flux.