In a further sign of the Trump White House's rapprochement with the Kremlin, The Treasury and Department of State have been ordered to compile a list of sanctions to be lifted
Reuters. reports adminstration officials have been preparing "options papers" identifying individuals and entities whose relief from U.S. sanctions would please their Russian counterparts.
While the specific sanctions to be removed have not been identified, in recent talks held in Turkey, Russia proposed restoring direct air links with the U.S.. The Financial Times reports a former spy and close associate of Vladimir Putin is working to restart Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe, reportedly with the backing of U.S. investors.
In January the Biden Treasury Department re-designated pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13662 almost 100 entities already designated pursuant to E.O. 14024. The measure provided legislative backing and made it more difficult for later administrations to unilaterally lift these sanctions. The action placed the sanctions under rules governed by the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). CAATSA, enacted in 2017, codified and expanded existing sanctions imposed by executive orders, including E.O. 13662. [13347]
In a February 28 address, Mr. Putin said that initial contacts with the Trump administration gave grounds for hope. "We understand that not everyone is happy with the resumption of Russian-American contacts. Some Western elites are still determined to maintain instability in the world, and these forces will try to disrupt or compromise the dialogue that has begun,"
Europe may soon find itself enforcing measures against Moscow alone. However, as Agathe Demarais, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior policy fellow on geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argues, the European Union holds greater economic leverage over Russia than the United States.
“In the case of Russia, simple numbers show that Europe has more leverage than the United States,, Demarais notes.
Economic ties between Russia and the United States have always been limited. In 2021, the last full year before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States absorbed only 3.6 percent of Russia’s exports and supplied just 5.9 percent of its imports.
By contrast, the EU was Moscow’s top trading partner, supplying nearly 40 percent of Russia’s imports and absorbing about the same share of its exports. According to Demarais, these figures underscore “the EU’s leverage over Russia in the form of trade sanctions.” European restrictions on high-tech exports, for example, have already forced Russian airlines to ground aircraft due to a lack of spare parts.
The EU’s influence extends to energy. While Russia curtailed gas supplies to Europe in 2022, the bloc has since diversified its energy sources, expanded liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, and accelerated the shift to renewables. Demarais argues there is “no reason why they should not be able to continue these efforts, which will culminate in an EU ban on all Russian hydrocarbon imports starting in 2027.”
Beyond trade and energy, European firms are central to Moscow’s hopes of reintegrating into global markets. Data from the Kyiv School of Economics shows that, in early 2022, only 18 percent of the 1,307 Western firms operating in Russia were U.S.-based, whereas two-thirds were European. This reliance on European businesses, banks, and financial infrastructure gives the EU a unique ability to exert pressure on the Kremlin.
While U.S. sanctions on Russia remain significant, particularly in restricting financial markets and energy technology, Demarais argues that lifting only U.S. sanctions would be insufficient for Moscow. If Europe maintains unity in its sanctions strategy, its economic influence over Russia will remain far greater than that of the United States.
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