The WTO and a second Trump Administration

In an opinion piece published by his current employer Akin Gump, former WTO trade official Alan Yanovich considers the forum's prospects under a return of Trump Administration policies.   Despite formidable challenges, Yanovich contends the institution has a shot at survival.

"The best-case scenario that can be expected from a second Trump administration is benign neglect and even that is not the only plausible scenario," he writes.   With no leverage or traction in trade relations with the U.S., supporters of the body will continue to rely on the WTO for purposes beyond dealing with Washington.

Yanovich sees three possible outcomes,

1. neglect with no obstruction;  
2. active disruption, including de-funding measures, or 
3. "WTO minus China," creation of tariff clubs excluding China.

India, with its leadership in the "plurilateral" movement at the WTO may play an important role in adapting to an incendiary US role,

"The survival of the WTO is by no means guaranteed," Yanovich writes. "Much will depend on the political capital that other WTO members are willing to invest in preserving it"

The full piece can be found [here]